Russia's reporters, and he himself was with the national socialist theory and practice of outright break, one of the few leading group of Russian reformers, in the end of 1991 after the disintegration of the Soviet Union that time, drastic cuts in public spending and the budget was expanding deficit, the abolition of price controls, rapid progress has launched a privatization program.
Gaidar's program is called a communist factions always regarded as the leading cause of reform.
as he tried to tell his fellow Russian (in most cases are the futile) as the implementation of shock, not him, but completely unable to maintain already corrupt to the planning system can not be saved, and has no value or distribution of the subsidy system disorders.
Gaidar squat stature, with an irony and self-deprecating sense of humor, where the factions of his dominant thinker and natural leader. at least in the beginning, his character's self-confidence and intellectual daring, in large part for the forthcoming major changes to win enough support.
Earlier this week, his closest partners, Anatoly. Chubais (Anatoly Chubais) wrote in his blog, the history of Russia and the world to the power of wisdom, of past, present and future, and willing to make a clear grasp of the most difficult, but also the most necessary decisions, very few people with him shoulder to shoulder. Adams led the Russian Privatization.
in Boris. Yeltsin (Boris Yeltsin) for Hu to take power during the Russian president, Mr Gaidar had the need to Yeltsin's economic reform ideas: the second half of 1992, President Yeltsin The first term of office, he was appointed as acting prime minister. But the voices against the reform, some people hate him and his colleagues and the Russian Duma (Duma) refuse to approve the appointment, forcing more people to Boris Yeltsin chose instead Victor assured. Chernomyrdin (Victor Chernomyrdin). Gaidar, Chernomyrdin was later appointed as First Deputy Prime Minister.
economists show that people sometimes call them rational courage, but rarely show them the moral and physical courage. When Gaidar consider themselves reformers out of the previous Soviet bloc favorite government planning and the wisely chose the free market (in spite of its social roots). but that period in power, let him show the other two qualities. he and his colleagues really believe that the communist-inspired resistance, may They killed or imprisoned: as he often attest, strong support for Yeltsin, who owe a lot. In a visit to Vorkuta prison camps before, he was a fierce questioning and pushing force of the partly mm he let the communities in which local people think of evil origin, and these are they eager to cover up.
1993 coup against Yeltsin, seems likely to be successful in the occasion of the coup, Mr Gaidar took to television, called on Moscow united to support Yeltsin.
coup was defeated, his political group in which with some of his closest aides created the transition of Economic Research (Institute of the Economy in Transition), and turned to writing, including the recent , published in 2007), as well as he played a key role in the economic transformation of the account.
Gaidar and Chubais and others, to help create freedom - conservative Union of Right Forces (Union of Right Forces ), the party attracted only a small number of votes, in part because of the different factions of reformers can unite the long-term.
his family is firm revolutionary. His grandfather, Arkady. Gaidar (Arkady Gaidar) the Red Army during the civil war generals, and later converted to children's literature writers, aimed at inspiring a new generation of Soviet youth. His father Timur (Timur) is a Russian and become a Fidel. Fidel Castro (Fidel Castro) friends.
Gaidar was young, in Mikhail. Gorbachev (Mikhail Gorbachev) in power times as the main ideology of the Soviet Communist Party magazine communism Premier Nikita. Do not Leihe (Nikita Belykh) consultancy, which is reform-minded governor of a strong one. Gaidar ill for some time. It is reported that thrombosis is the cause of death eventually led to his.
problem is, the liberation of ideas and facts on why many governments in developing countries is not easy to do so? This is obviously a very important issue. Unfortunately, social scientists have yet to give a good answer. However, one is often mentioned hypothesis is that countries can choose appropriate and realistic policies and strategies for economic development does not depend on its ability to distinguish right from wrong, but depends on its ability to make mistakes in the end how much. government policy mistakes are Sagong forgive thing, only difference is who can better afford to commit mistakes. The ability to make mistakes, or by its natural endowments of natural resources determines plump. the policy, one can afford to commit the wrong countries tend to be guilty of a sustained wrong wrong wrong again.
This leads people to pay attention to the phenomenon of an interesting experience. In Marshall lecture, Mr. Lin Yifu said that the fifties and sixties in the 20th century, the leaders of all countries have the same goal of m Under the leadership of their own lead to the modernization of the country; and development of advanced industry is the only way to achieve modernization of the country. the leaders of the newly industrialized economies of East Asia is no exception. However, the catch-up strategy for low efficiency, requiring a lot of available mobilization of resources to support, which can be maintained depends on the duration and the extent of the richness of natural resources per capita and the size of the population, the more abundant natural resources per capita, population size, the greater the longer able to mobilize the resources of the the more easily mobilized. However, the shortage of resources per capita East Asia, the population is relatively small, this is the catch-up strategy for the implementation of the adverse conditions. hh Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong as well. East Asian emerging economies, the development of comparative advantage, in a very large extent because of its limited resources. In other words, resource-poor economies can not afford to commit errors to less mistakes.
in fact 20 years ago, economists have found that state resources plump the impact on economic development are often beyond our intuition. since the 90s of last century, economists began to study the issue alive. in those countries rich in natural resources, economic development level and it has a deposit of natural resources per capita Statistics on the amount of often showing negative correlation. even been found with the resources of political civilization there is a reverse relationship between plump. because the Netherlands in 1960 after the discovery of natural gas industrial production and a significant setback in economic growth, and thus this phenomenon in economics and political science literature is often diagnosed as export of primary products or natural resources, made a fortune selling it, it leads the process of industrialization and modernization will tend to slow down, or even become stagnant.
for this pathology, the economist's explanation is simple: natural resources exports of these countries will not help improve the competitiveness of the industry, and their results will make them crazy import their own countries, shrinking industrial sector. Economists also found that over-reliance on natural resources, countries, their policies will always misleading its economic development, political progress, and distort its investment in productive physical and human capital accumulation. In short, when everything revolved around oil and gas policy which began when the rhythm of economic development opportunities for all probability may be adversely affected by the.
started this simple discussion, you will not be written on Gaidar's Resources plump and the economic crisis hit the country since the 20th century, but it is plump and the collapse of natural resources, an empire. in history, 16-17th century Spain is a gold and silver in the Americas since the establishment of a reliable income that is above the suffered the destruction of the empire. Since the 20th century, particularly in the 60's after a lot more in this world the Soviet planned economy, consumer goods shortages plagued the country has been the most serious problems. Soviet-type system can be used up to create a cannon, but it is difficult to produce enough butter. in 1953 after the death of Stalin, the Soviet Union's agriculture has basic shrink, unable to support the country's survival. Soviet leaders tried a solution to food shortages .1950 reclamation era is an expedient measure, but still can not solve the problem. So it appears the leaders of the Soviet Union that is shame results, that the Soviet Union had to import large quantities of food .1963 gold reserves of the Soviet Union decided to use to import food, because it makes it isolated from the world of foreign exchange reserves from .1963 is not the Soviet Union spent more than its reserve 1 / 3 (372 tons) on grain imports in gold once again used .1965 335 tons of gold to buy food.
1960's the discovery of oil fields in West Siberia, the Soviet Union can be described as a surprise. It makes the Soviet Union in foreign exchange to import food problem can be solved. Before the Soviet Union also has a large-scale oil exploitation, but of a socialist state transportation of oil, not used to the West in exchange for foreign exchange. However, after the West Siberian oil field exploitation, according to Gaidar's view, the Soviet Union's foreign trade balance, balance of payments, food supply, political stability and so began to rely on oil and natural gas. Indeed, the massive oil revenues ease food shortages. Not only that, with the sale of the oil bonanza, the Soviet Union also began to strengthen the arms race with the United States, I hope the balance of power with the United States to obtain nuclear power and the war in Afghanistan has been the implementation of the capacity of such a venture.
from 1973 to the early 1980s, the Soviet oil and natural gas accounted for exports to OECD countries, nearly 70%. and because of this oil prices have been rising during the Soviet Union's oil revenue can be described as rolling. because there are such huge oil revenues credited to the Soviet Union actually did not set up during this period of foreign exchange reserve fund, not only that, the Soviet Union has rapidly increased the size of the outside of the debt.
1981-1984 years, the Soviet Union increased oil production peak. But after 1985, oil production began to decline because of rising costs. However, members had to protect the political stability of CMEA, the Soviet Union had to reduce to the OECD country's exports. It was at this time, the armistice between Iran and Iraq, lost during the war to increase the share of oil, Iran and Iraq, but playing the oil price war. Oil prices fell .1982 on each $ 31 76 points, to 1985, fell to $ 27 .1985, in order to keep their market share, intense competition in the major oil producers, Saudi Arabia increased its oil production more than 3 times. As a result, oil prices plummeted in 1986 to dozens of years of record low, 10 dollars a barrel. Gaidar not hesitate to put the price of oil plunged seen as fatal blow to the Soviet economy.
on the interpretation of Soviet economic crisis and the Soviet Union disintegrated more than one version of the theory . In this book, Gaidar analyzed and refuted several popular interpretation of the theory of the collapse of the Soviet Union. In Russia, the Soviet Union has always had and the international political conspiracy linked to say, there are some collapse of the Soviet Union came to power with Ronald Reagan carried out after people linked arms race. Gaidar insist that these people are not the real reason, it is difficult to explain the mechanism of economic collapse in 1985-1991. Gaidar many given the evidence against the above comments or even include The CIA assessment of the Soviet Union in the 80s when the economic situation of the basic conclusions do not have a suspect in the Soviet Union would soon collapse. The reason why these studies on the deterioration of the Soviet economy was underestimated, a very important reason is that they still assume that Soviet economy is a closed body, while ignoring the Soviet Union had both oil and food into the world trading system and began to rely on market prices in the international market. Based on the Soviet Union and world trade body to determine the height of integration and analysis Gaidar said, economic demise of the empire actually highly correlated with oil prices, looks like a suspected exaggeration, an exercise in the former Soviet Union touched a core of economic collapse.
Gaidar is a famous economist, in 1992 served as acting Prime Minister Government of the Russian Federation 1993 to-1994 he was appointed First Vice-Chairman Council of Ministers the federal government. Now as the Institute of the Russian transition economy. He's the explanation contains a chain of logic. with Gaidar's words, the logic of the Soviet leadership people (even including a new generation of leaders, including Mikhail Gorbachev) there is simply not understand. Soviet economy to the traditional management of oil and natural gas is always the goal, the leaders of the international market, the domestic financial budget, foreign exchange reserves, external debt, balance of payments and the relationship between money and other ignorant, unable to assess the Soviet economy in the late 80's suffered in the horrific extent of the risks and threats.
Gaidar in the book insists that , due to inability to understand the real economic problems of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev came to power but the policy of continuing to take the same mistake again. For example, the rapid decline in oil prices led to the deficits, the Soviet Government has adopted the anti-alcohol campaign (wine is an important revenue Soviet sources) to further reduce the budget revenue; while increasing investment in infrastructure and reduce the import of consumer goods from the CMEA. These policies led to the Government's fiscal deficit increased sharply in .1985 the Soviet state budget deficit of 180 billion rubles, in 1988 it reached 901 billion rubles in early .1989 312.4 billion rubles for the national debt, to the end of the year is as high as 400 billion rubles, the Soviet Union accounted for 44% of GDP. In this situation, Soviet Union National Bank can only use the funds and no product corresponding to the deposits of ordinary people. Thus, a serious currency crisis will be inevitable happened.
the Soviet economy in this huge bureaucracy has changed after 80 years increasingly dependent on oil revenues and the international market to trade (ie exports and imports of parity) is characterized by continued deterioration of the effects of loss of balance and balance of payments gap so more and more. in the general market economy, in the face of such external shocks, often appear to serious inflation and currency devaluation of the characteristics of the correction process. As for the Soviet Union, As oil and resource-based exports, a serious shortage of foreign exchange reserves, exports of oil revenues and even the West can only be used to repay the debt, then quickly lead to severe shortages of food and consumer goods. even in the case of a shortage of consumer goods, the Soviet Union bureaucracy is still difficult to compress the scale of capital construction investment, which further led to the Government's financial crisis, provoking a currency crisis. Finally, even the Western countries because of the loan to the Soviet Union Soviet Union and unreliable financial crisis threaten to terminate the credit. In this kinds of economic crisis and political crisis situations are very sharp, forcing Gorbachev had to choose only viable way out, that is, to absorb large-scale loans in Western countries to maintain the domestic economy will collapse, and this means that the Soviet Union must Western countries agreed to the loan terms.
Gaidar on the Soviet Union this is all economics. Based on this interpretation, Gaidar on Gorbachev's historic choice made this assessment. He said only by understanding the Soviet Union in 1988 on the occasion of the acute economic problems encountered by the degree to really understand Gorbachev in December 1988 speech at the United Nations why the proposed initiative on arms reductions and the signing of medium-range missile agreement. As These practices implementing a major plan to tackle the crisis of political suicide, then he leaves the present conditions the implementation of a similar Gorbachev had chosen the route towards the West. This line is not out of personal preference, but by the domestic economic and political situation of the decision. God's gift, it can have support from the energy of an empire, but the endowment was also given to the worst of its crisis management system and the lowest IQ level, it can be making progress, and not in the bureaucracy discontinuity in the consumption of the wrong policies of their own energy. In contrast, China is a country committed can not afford mistakes, but also because this constraint, the Chinese had to rely mainly on continuous change and innovation to constantly look for economic development needs energy, and thus, economic restructuring and growth can always be a critical crossroads in every subsequent times to make the choice proven to be correct.
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